Libs Laying Groundwork to Sink RINO Specter

HT to PAWaterCooler contributors:



Arlen Specter with his two options: become an independent like Lieberman or hope this Alaskan makes a few trips to PA. (Photo by Flickr user scriptingnews. Creative Commons License.)

Hometown Senator in a lot of trouble

Wednesday, March 4th, 2009 at 8:19 am - by Dan Pohlig. Filed under: Politics.

With former congressman Pat Toomey’s revelation that he is seriously considering jumping over from the governor’s race to take on 16-term Senator Arlen Specter, the blogosphere is abuzz with possible scenarios.

Full disclosure: In 2004, I was the Issues Director for Congressman Joe Hoeffel who ran unsuccessfully against Senator Specter in the general election. Specter won that general by about 11 percent of the vote after squeaking by in the primary against Toomey. At the time, we on the Hoeffel campaign clearly liked our chances against Toomey better but considered it pretty unthinkable - at least early on - that the guy could win. As that primary approached, however, and the polls showed some tightening, it became clear that it would be a dogfight.

Earlier today I was in touch with some former colleagues from that race and one local Democratic operative about some number crunching that the operative had done to compare the PA GOP electorate of 2004 with 2008. Going county-by-county, his worked showed that while the GOP grew overall by about 13K between ‘04 and ‘08 (by contrast, the Democratic Party grew by over 700,000K after starting with a 500,000K lead in 2004), most of that growth was in counties that Toomey won or came very close to Specter.

Going county by county, he also extrapolated what the changes in registration totals would mean for each candidate. For example, in Bucks County, Arlen Specter got 31,971 votes to Toomey’s 25,139 in 2004. By 2008, the number of Bucks County Republicans had dropped by nearly 8 percent. Simply assuming that Specter still gets 55 percent of the remaining votes means that he loses 543 votes from his overall margin. Do this county by county and the result is that Specter loses almost half of his 17,000 vote margin.

And that assumes that the loss of Republicans in some counties and the gain in others is shared evenly between Specter and Toomey. It’s not a big leap to say that almost all of the 8 percent of voters who are no longer Bucks County GOP voters were Arlen Specter voters. So just by the numbers Specter seems to be in a tough spot.


The Bitter American takes Pohlig to task:

1 - The picture: this is what marketers call "product placement." Place Specter with two people the Dumb-o-crats consider "losers:" Lieberman and Palin

2 - They can't even mention Palin's name? WTF?

3 - If GOVERNOR PALIN stumps for anybody in Pennsylvania, it'll be for pro-lifer and REAL Republican Pat Toomey.

4 - Pohlig's Bucks County numbers assumes a trend towards Democratization. If the Obamistake continues to run this country into the ground, the backlash will make the DNC's head spin (It's Howard Dean, so that's probably happeneing anyway - YEA-A-ARGH!)

An Obit for the Smerconish Show,....

HT the Matt Best at PAWaterCooler as he rebuts Mike Smeroconish's premature McCain obit:


Michael Smerconish decided that the election is over 19 days before it actually happens. Frankly I’m thrilled. It means arrogant individuals like Mr. Smerconish don’t need to show up on election day and vote.

Mr. Smerconish decided to get out in front and write an obituary of the McCain campaign. You can read the memo here.

I have my own memo that I’d like to share with all PAWatercooler readers.

The GOP: The first obituary

Memo

To: Michael Smerconish and other RINO Republicans of PA

From: Matthew Best

Date: Nov. 5, 2008

Congratulations comrade. Your candidate won. I’m sure you are sitting around in some plush Philly office space, being all proud of yourself, and thinking that you taught those darn conservatives from the rest of the state a lesson. You showed them that they are wrong. What a sweet taste of victory that must be.

But what exactly did you win? Clearly, the old phrase that those who know not history are doomed to repeat it should be paid attention to. Because of your efforts and other RINOs like yourself, you’ve succeeded in ensuring that the GOP will be a almost permanent minority for some time to come, if it survives at all. Kind of reminds me of those 40 years that the Democrats controlled Congress. Republicans didn’t have a say in government. They didn’t have a say in policy. So they spent time being good country club Republicans, raising a voice every now and then, but not rattling the Democrat majority too often. They never wanted to stop the flow of table scraps that the Democrats would throw to them.

And for what purpose anyway, especially if there is only a nuance of difference between the parties that you are advocating. What is there fight about if both parties support abortion? What is there to fight about if both parties support tax increases? What is there to fight about if both parties are for bigger government? What is there to fight about if the Republicans are moderate to liberal and the Democrats are moderate to liberal? Isn’t that what you are really advocating? Peace at the price of chains. God forbid we rock the boat.

All I can say is this - keep doing what you’re doing. You are helping to ensure that the party under RINO leadership ends up the way of the Whig party. The sooner that happens, the better off we’ll be. Then we can leave RINOism on the trashheap of history.

In the mean time, enjoy the Obama paradise that you worked to achieve. You deserve it. Be sure you get your ushanka and wear it proudly - I hear winter is going to be extra cold and energy prices are going to soar. But I’m sure you don’t mind - especially now that we’ve elected Obama, who will solve all our problems. Besides, you’ll get table scraps, right?

The TrekMedic appends:

I've already switched to Bill Bennett. I just couldn't stomach Smerconish kissing RINO-in-charge Specter's ass everyday!