Wasn't Benedict Arlen's Defection Supposed to HELP the Dems?

Poll: Republicans Edge Democrats

More Choose GOP On Generic Congressional Ballot
By MICHAEL P. TREMOGLIE, The Bulletin
Friday, May 01, 2009

A new Rasmussen Reports poll released this week said Republicans now lead Democrats in their latest generic congressional ballot. This is only the second time in more than five years of daily or weekly tracking this has happened, the pollster said.

The new national telephone survey found that 41 percent would vote for their district’s Republican candidate while 38 percent would choose the Democrat. More surprising is 31 percent of conservative Democrats said they would vote for their district’s Republican candidate.

Overall, the GOP gained two points this week, while the Democrats lost a point in support. Still, Rasmussen cautions readers about interpreting the results as representing a trend that Republican support is increasing.

The polling organization noted the GOP’s improved position comes primarily from falling Democratic support. Democrats are currently at their lowest level of support in the past year, while Republicans are at the high water mark.

During the past year, Democratic support has ranged from a low of 38 percent to a high of 50 percent. In that same time period, Republicans have been preferred by 34 percent to 41 percent of voters nationwide.

The trend so far for the 2009 calendar year has been that Democratic support has ranged from 38 percent to 42 percent. The Republican range has been from 35 percent to 41 percent.

The year began well for Democrats, who were following the coattails of President Barack Obama. They held a six- or seven-point lead over the GOP for the first several weeks of 2009.

But this began to slip in early February, after Mr. Obama’s inauguration and after the new congressional session began. The Republicans took a two-point lead for a single week in mid-March. Since then, the results have ranged from dead even to a four point lead for the Democrats.

The gender split for the parties is pretty consistent.

Men favor the GOP by a 45 percent to 34 percent margin. Women prefer the Democrats by a 42 percent to 38 percent margin.

Michael P. Tremoglie can be contacted at mtremoglie@thebulletin.us